3D: It's So Much More Than TV

Working for a company that is a major manufacturer of high-quality and best-selling TVs, it's natural that I'd be prone to promote the benefits of 3D as it pertains to HDTV. And I am, because I believe in 3D, and believe that the best way to view it is on a Panasonic plasma set that displays 3D in full, 1080p resolution.

But 3D is so much more, as participants at the recent Paul Kagan Conference on 3D Media Markets Presented by Panasonic, pointed out.

These facts came out at the conference, held at New York's famous Waldorf-Astoria hotel. Over 120 top industry executives gathered to gain an in-depth understanding of the implications of 3D, for entertainment and for our culture.

If the name "Kagan" doesn't mean anything to you, Paul is regarded as the dean of media analysts. For more than 30 years, his name has been synonymous with a deep understanding of the businesses of broadcast television, feature films, and cable TV. This was Kagan's first conference on 3D, and Panasonic was happy to be its major sponsor.

Of course, we all know about 3D's impact on the world of cinema. But Jeffrey Katzenberg, head of DreamWorks Animation, pointed out that 3D will become so pervasive that it won't be long before every public gathering that uses digital projection, will use 3D.

The producer of Avatar, Jon Landau, said that the 3D version of his famed film was so popular that the only reason it was pulled from the theaters is because at the time, there weren't enough 3D screens to go around, and another 3D movie was scheduled to start.

And for all you Avatar fans, you'll be happy to know that Jon used the occasion of the conference to announce Avatar 2 and Avatar 3, of course also to be shot in 3D. The films will premiere in 2014 and 2015.

The Discovery Channel "blew the audience away" with a terrific trailer reel featuring some amazing 3D footage from its upcoming channel, due to launch in a few months. ESPN showed some great sports footage as well. And DirecTV reiterated its strong commitment to its 3D programming work. The top satellite channel was the first out of the gate with a package of three 3D channels, including N3D Powered by Panasonic, a full-time 3D channel (in which Panasonic is partnered) featuring great sports, movies, and other event programming.

3D is how we see the world. And the use of 3D in entertainment, in public forums, in science, and in education will become so popular that it will be hard to remember a time when we didn't view the virtual world in 3D.

For example, 3D is being used today by oil and gas companies to help them find recoverable reserves. By projecting a room-sized video of an underground well in 3D, geologists can get a much more realistic view of a potential well, and assess the difficulties in extracting resources.

Surgeons are using 3D to help them better understand intricate procedures, and to assist them in visualizing an operation from remote locations. And in studies conducted by Texas Instruments, schools that presented video lessons in 3D found that students had a much better rate of retention than those who saw the same material in 2D.

There's no doubt that 3D is fun to watch. But more importantly, 3D is also creating a profound change in the way we live and work.

 

What Will 3D TV Look Like Down the Road?

The title of this post is a bit misleading, because of course no one knows how the 3D TV scene will look as it becomes a maturing technology.

I'm reminded of the situation that high definition TV faced when it was about to be introduced to the public at the end of the 1990s. After literally decades of development in the labs, and the switch from an analog to a digital system that many said could never be done, the final technology was dismissed by many reputable industry insiders.

The problem with HDTV, they said, was not with the technology. They all agreed HDTV pictures were a quantum leap over current analog broadcast television quality. But they said that HDTV would never be a business. It would fail because there was no financial incentive for television networks to switch out their gear and begin to shoot in HD.

With HDTV sets nearing 70 percent penetration, we know that those naysayers were wrong. And today, we're hearing similar complaints from those who believe that 3D won't happen for any number of reasons.

I recently came across a thought-provoking piece by Michael Grebb, executive editor of CableFAX. He doesn't doubt that 3D TV will come to pass, but he raises some interesting points.

For example, he notes that cinematographers will have to learn to shoot content in a completely different way. The shaky camera technique so popular in television dramas such as ER will have to go. Watching that kind of cinema verité technique in 3D would probably make a few people queasy.

Which means that the idea of simply converting existing content to 3D to get a new lease on life and a quick way to come up with 3D programs will have to be rethought, because a lot of existing shows simply may not work in 3D.

And how do you display subtitles and titles? Should they be processed so they appear to be hovering in front of the TV's frame, flush with it, or inside the frame? Or, should they move back and forth depending on what sort of action is taking place?

Should everything on TV eventually be in 3D, or should the technology just be reserved for epic events, like major sports, concerts, and the like?

A recent report from iSuppli shows that 3D TV sales will explode, from just over 4 million worldwide this year, to 78 million five years from now.

I have no doubt that this is correct; as Full HD 3D functionality becomes the norm for new TVs, people will expect it as part of a new TV purchase, just as consumers expect that every TV they buy today is a color TV.

The only question is what that great new compelling 3D content will look like. I can't wait to see how it shakes out.

3D in the Camera or the Control Room?

If you hadn't seen the Tim Burton film, Alice in Wonderland, you missed a fascinating motion picture. Burton is a very imaginative director who brings a unique vision to all of his work. Of course, you needed to have seen it in 3D (and eventually you'll be able to experience that at home, with a Panasonic Full HD 3D HDTV, once a Blu-ray version is released).

One thing that's interesting about this production is that, while Burton always intended the film to be in 3D, he didn't shoot it in 3D, but only converted it once the picture was in post-production. Still, the film looks great. But doesn't this run counter to my previous assertions that the best looking 3D imagery comes from productions originally shot in 3D?

This is the exception that proves the rule. Because Alice combines live-action with animation, the depth effect could be manipulated after the sequences were created. For example, the Cheshire Cat recedes into the distance as he disappears. In post, the filmmakers could decide how far in front of the screen he should start, and how far behind the screen he should recede.

But you can't make those kinds of decisions with live action without creating a disconnect between the visual experience and what one's brain expects reality to look like. While it's possible to alter the depth effect during a World Cup soccer match, if the effect doesn't match reality the scene would look truly bizarre.

I recently watched a 3D post-production supervisor alter the depth effect in a rock concert film. By adjusting the parallax, he was able to make the performer appear to be in front of the screen, and then move him to what would be perceived as hundreds of feet back. But because the performer was actually situated somewhere in-between, the effect was frankly weird; if the depth effect doesn't match up with reality, your brain will tell you something is wrong and you won't like the outcome.

Simply shooting Alice in 2D was difficult enough, one of the film's creators told me. To start creating 3D at the same time would have proven to be an extraordinarily difficult task. In this case, it works. But I wouldn't take that approach when we're shooting sports, concerts, or any actual events that involve live characters that need to be perceived at specific distances.

3D TV: What's On?

If you're contemplating the purchase of a new Panasonic Full HD 3D HDTV, you naturally want to know that there will be enough 3D programming to watch. When it comes to 3D TV content, right now we're in the "calm before the storm" period. While you wouldn't know it by watching TV today, in just a matter of months the airwaves will be filled with the beginnings of new and exciting 3D content from Panasonic, its partners, and others.

Here's a rundown of what you can expect this year:

Our content partner, DirecTV, will be launching three dedicated 3D channels this June. The first, called N3D Powered by Panasonic, will be a 24/7 linear channel with amazing 3D programming from such powerhouse programmers as AEG/AEG Digital Media, CBS, Fox Sports/FSN, Golden Boy Promotions, HDNet, MTV, NBC Universal and Turner Broadcasting System.

In addition, we and DirecTV will also be offering a 24/7 3D pay per view channel, and a 3D video on demand service. A free set-top box software upgrade will enable all DirecTV subscribers to receive this great new 3D programming as long as they own a 3D compatible HDTV and 3D glasses.

Along with our three channels, ESPN will be launching America's first 3D sports channel, called appropriately enough, ESPN 3D. The network will be up in time for this summer's World Cup soccer matches, and the network has committed to showing 25 of them in 3D, as well as this summer's X Games, NBA games, the Winter X Games, college football and basketball, and the 2011 BCS National Championship game in Glendale, Arizona. ESPN 3D be available on DirecTV as well as through select cable companies.

World Cup 3D coverage begins on Friday, June 11th, at 9:30 a.m. ET, with the South Africa vs. Mexico game from Johannesburg.

For doco buffs, Discovery announced last January that it will also launch a full-time 3D channel, showing 3D content from such genres as natural history, space exploration, science and technology, and children's programming. While Discovery hasn't yet committed to a launch date, with the rush toward 3D TV, you can be sure it will be soon.

Recently there was April's Master's golf tournament, which was shown in 3D in Comcast and Cox cable systems. And Verizon has announced that it will offer 3D broadcasts to its Fios TV customers by the end of 2010.

What's really exciting for me personally is to see the imminent release of 3D titles on Blu-ray discs. Blu-ray preserves the Full HD 3D experience, delivering an entire 1080p resolution image to each eye. It's the only technology that can do that, so 3D on Blu-ray will let you squeeze out every last pixel of resolution that your (hopefully Panasonic) 3D 1080p set can deliver.

Upcoming 3D Blu-ray titles include Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs, Coraline, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, Monsters vs. Aliens, and, of course, Avatar.

And that's just for starters. When HDTV launched at the end of the 1990s there was one program you could watch: John Glenn's return from space. It would be years before regularly-scheduled HD programming reached critical mass. By contrast, 3D TV programming is getting off to a breakneck start.

Panasonic Previews Its New 3D Camera

At the Consumer Electronics Show in January, we introduced Panasonic's new, light weight and reasonably priced 3D professional camera, the AG-3DA1. And at this month's NAB (that's National Association of Broadcasters) show in Las Vegas, the industry got its first chance to play with it.

As Panasonic's CEO said, we're creating 3D solutions from the camera to the couch, providing an entire 3D infrastructure that will enable program creators to make the best 3D content, and consumers to see it on the best possible 3D displays.

Today, if you want to shoot in 3D, it typically means hauling around a huge rig. With the new AG-3DA1, we've shrunk the entire package into an easy to handle body that contains two lenses that includes convergent point displacement and automatic correction for horizontal and vertical displacement.

If you're not familiar with these terms, in essence it means that we have "democratized" 3D production. By offering a small-sized reasonably-priced camera (it's $21,000, a very compelling price for a professional camera) we're bringing the ability to shoot in 3D to many more individuals. Imagine the difference between hauling an 80 pound 3D rig compared to carrying our new one that weighs just 6.6 pounds!

One NAB attendee gave a real-world example of what that means: with a traditional 3D rig, he was able to shoot in only a few locations in one day. Using a prototype AG-3DA1, he did 15 separate locations and covered 100 miles in the same amount of time.

What this means for the consumer is that the production community is now able to create a wide range of programs in 3D, including nature documentaries, live mega-events, concerts, sports, and any others that take place where a small, nimble camera is needed. Great 3D programming will be coming to viewers sooner than ever thought possible.

You can learn more about the camera by watching this YouTube video.

Analysts Weigh in on 3D TV

Now that 3D TVs are available for retail purchase, how many sets can the consumer electronics manufacturers expect to sell in the coming months? Of course, no one knows for sure, but there are a number of educated estimates coming out from some of the most-respected analysts in the industry.

In a study by the NPD Group, one-third of those questioned said that they were interested in buying a 3D TV. That's a huge number. Why? Remember, most consumers haven't yet viewed 3D TV, so getting one-third of respondents to say they want something that isn't available and hasn't been seen by many is a very positive sign. As Ross Rubin, an NPD analyst, said, consumers will want to bring "home even more of the cinematic experience."

The research firm, iSuppli, recently released its own analysis of how well 3D TV sales will fare, and the numbers look great. According to iSuppli, 3D TV set sales will explode, growing from 4.2 million TVs worldwide this year, to an amazing 78 million in 2015, just five years from now. Revenues from those sales will jump from $7.4 billion this year, to $64 billion in 2015. 

It's Panasonic's belief, and increasingly that of industry analysts as well, that once consumers get to see the amazingly lifelike and encompassing effect that the Full HD 3D experience has on television watching, that Full HD 3D HDTVs will become a "must have" for many television viewers.

Questions on 3D? We've got answers

As those who have been reading my blog know, my comments have been incorporated into the 3D mini-site created by Panasonic USA.

But now there are additional resources at Panasonic that help explain Full HD 3D, Panasonic's commitment to it, upcoming products, and an excellent primer on 3D technology.

The new site, which you can enter by clicking here, has been a joint effort of Panasonic colleagues throughout the world. At the site, you can learn all about Panasonic's 3D roll-out plans both in the U.S. and in Europe, and see our new 2010 Full HD 3D ready product lineup.

You can also gain a better understanding of how Full HD 3D TV works, and how Panasonic will be marketing this new technology.

But wouldn't you rather see Full HD 3D TV in action today? You can right now. Through our partnership with Best Buy, Panasonic Full HD 3D TVs are on display in specially-designed areas in Best Buy's Magnolia Home Theater store-within-a-store concept.

At Magnolia, you'll be able to experience several models of Panasonic Full HD 3D TVs, in a setting designed to maximize your enjoyment and the 3D experience.

If you're not near a Magnolia Home Theater store, we're happy to let you know that our Panasonic Touch the Future Tour is in full swing. Visiting 15 cities between now and mid-April, the Tour showcases the latest Panasonic Full HD 3D displays, 3D ready Blu-ray players and many of our newest Lumix cameras, and Panasonic camcorders.

You'll be able to test some of our products' latest features, learn about our partnership with DirecTV to bring three 3D channels to consumers later this year and even enter for the chance to win a complete Panasonic Full HD 3D home theater system.

For more information and a list of venues throughout the country that will be hosting rhe Panasonic Touch the Future Tour, click here.

Real World 3D TV

When it comes to deploying 3D TV, it's full steam ahead in the U.K.

A few weeks ago, Sky, Britain's largest satellite TV provider, broadcast a 3D version of the Premiere League match between soccer teams Arsenal and Manchester United, in pubs throughout the country. And the satellite service will launch its own dedicated 3D channel this April. As in the States, viewers will need to purchase a new 3D-capable TV, but will be able to use their existing HDTV satellite converter box to pick up the signal.

You can read more about the match here.

The soccer match was one of the first times when the public, as opposed to the TV industry, has been able to see 3D TV. And what's the verdict?

According to one person who saw it, the presentation was "impressive."  Sky "will have been pleased by the response from the select few who witnessed yesterday’s match," he said.

This writer noted that Sky paid careful attention to camera placement and camera angles, to maximize the 3D effect. He said that the cameras placed behind the goals were particularly effective in showing depth, whereas the cameras on the halfway line didn't work as well; when the players ran across the field of view, the depth effect was lessened.

These are the kinds of issues that the 3D production community will be exploring as we move up to the launch of our own 3D channels in partnership with DirecTV. 

One of the pioneers of HDTV famously said that the very first HDTV sets were "the worst HDTVs we'll see." Similarly, the quality of the 3D productions will only get better as the industry becomes well versed in the technology.

HDMI 1.4 Specs Released to the Public

If the above headline leaves you scratching your head, let me explain.

HDMI is a technology standard that allows both audio and video to travel through one cable. If you don't have an HDMI cable and you want to see HDTV, you need to use component cables--those sets of three cables--plus another two for audio. But you can't use component cables to watch true Blu-ray resolution; only an HDMI cable can transmit a 1080p picture from a Blu-ray player to a 1080p-capable display.

The HDMI standard has been continually updated. The problem with the current standard, called HDMI 1.3, is that it does not have the bandwidth capable of transmitting two complete 1080p images at 60 frames per second. But that's what's needed in order for consumers to see Full HD 3D TV. The current standard now in use can only transmit two 1080i images at 60 frames per second.

Which is one of the reasons why the HDMI consortium came up with a new version of the standard which, of course, is called 1.4. The new standard not only supports the transmission of two, 1080p images at 60 frames per second, but it also allows a broadband signal to be transmitted through the same cable, which the previous standard did not.

The new standard is a bit of old news; the HDMI consortium decided on its parameters months ago. What is new is that the specs are now available to anyone who's not a part of the consortium. So now other hardware manufacturers and game developers can start work on their own 3D content and hardware to help move the transition to 3D forward at an even more rapid pace.

Simulated 3D: Does it Work?

At this year's Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, several TV set manufacturers exhibited 3D TV sets they plan to introduce later this year.  And a few of them offered a new feature that they presumably believe will help fill a short-term void in 3D programming and encourage consumers to buy a new 3D set: simulated 3D.

This approach is quite different from what Hollywood's studios do when they have their most skilled production talent go back into their archives (think Titanic, Star Wars) and painstakingly hand craft, with the use of very high-end processors, new 3D titles. (And, it's not just catalog. As I understand it, Disney's G-Force was originally shot in 2D only but then processed in 3D for theatrical distribution)

The new TVs with the simulated-3D feature will, in a sense, upconvert existing 2D images to 3D, and do so in real time with a built-in processor.  The aim, as one manufacturer said, is to let you watch "everything" in 3D, even before everything is actually in 3D.

Panasonic will not be offering this technology. Not because we can't, but because we strongly believe that simulated 3D, like simulated stereo or HDTV, is never as good as the real thing. If it's shot in traditional 2D, keep it that way and play it back in glorious high-definition! However if it's shot in 3D let's see it the way it was intended and created. How many people do you know who colorize their family or other personal photos from black and white to colour? Likewise, do any take their standard definition camcorder video and bump it up to high definition?  Not many, I would think.

In the world of 3D, it's more than just display resolution. Creating quality 3D imagery is a complex process. Camera angles and framing need to be optimized to create a compelling 3D effect; certain scenes and movements don't lend themselves to 3D and can possibly even result in eyestrain.

While it's certainly technically possible to create a simulated 3D effect in the TV using processing algorithms, the versions I've seen look nothing like real 3D. Instead of three dimensional objects in three dimensional space, the images often more resemble the dioramas we made as kids, with flat planes suspended in three dimensions. Some portions of the image will disproportionally stick out. With a small processor, there will be compromises and judgement calls that will be made that will inevitably affect the image.

Panasonic strongly believes that when creating 3D, it's necessary to put our best foot forward, and not take any shortcuts that could turn some people off to 3D. Our goal is to bring the magic of Hollywood to the home pristine and intact without alterations and, as much as possible, accurately represent the artist's vision. To do that, we need to insure that we do the best possible 3D work we can, at all times. And that is what we will do.